Is it an El Niño year 2022?
Most current climate model predictions expect the negative Niño-3.4 anomaly will weaken over the summer and strengthen in the fall. The range of forecasts for departures from average temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific in 2022 from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME).
Is 2012 an El Niño year?
2012 was also warmest “La Niña year” on record While there are a variety of approaches for defining a La Niña or El Niño year, NCDC’s criteria is defined as when the first three months of a calendar year meet the La Niña or El Niño threshold as defined by NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) Oceanic Niño Index (ONI).
Are we in a La Niña year?
The current forecast favors the continuation of La Niña through the summer (59% chance), with a slightly lower chance into the fall (50-55% chance). A third-year La Niña would be pretty unusual—we’ve only seen two others since 1950.
When’s the next El Niño?
El-Nino should arrive already in the second half of the year 2022 according to ECMWF estimates and it´s very probable, that it will continue in all year 2023, maybe 2024, or even in 2025, too. El-Nino is in the World linked predominantly with hot and dry conditions, severe droughts or wildfires should appear.
Will there be an El Niño in 2023?
There is less certainty going into Fall, but more members go for the negative phase. The ENSO forecast from the United States CFSv2 is similar. It shows the current cooling to simply continue deep into 2022. It sustains the cold anomalies over Summer, and into the 2022/2023 cold season.
Is 2022 a La Niña year?
La Niña isn’t weakening as it usually does in spring. There’s an increasing chance of a third straight La Niña fall and winter in 2022-23. This “triple-dip” La Niña hasn’t happened since 2000. This could have impacts on hurricane season, and the expansive western and southern drought.
Are we in an El Nina year?
Based on all the available data, an official La Nina watch is still in effect, released by the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center: “La Niña is likely to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring (77% chance during March-May 2022) and then transition to ENSO-neutral (56% chance during May-July 2022).
When did the 2020 La Niña start?
As indicated by Zheng et al. (2021), the moderate 2020/21 La Niña event originated from the cold SSTA of the equatorial eastern Pacific in May 2020, gaining strength and spreading westward under the easterly wind anomaly in the autumn, and since October 2020, the Niño3.
How often does El Niño occur in the Pacific Ocean?
During this phase of ENSO, the water is cooler than normal and the east winds are stronger. El Niños typically occur every 3 to 5 years. How do El Niño and La Niña events form and increase in strength? The key is in the ocean-atmosphere coupling across the tropical Pacific Ocean.
Does El Niño affect the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic?
Even though El Niño occurs in the Pacific Ocean, it often reduces the number of hurricanes that form in the Atlantic Ocean. Conversely, La Niña events tend to be related to an increase in the number of Atlantic hurricanes.
What is the El Niño status now?
The El Niño of 2019 is officially done. Neutral conditions have returned to the tropical Pacific, and of the three possible outcomes—El Niño, La Niña, or neutral—forecasters favor neutral to persist through Northern Hemisphere winter. More ENSO status information.
How do El Niño and La Niña affect the climate?
El Niño and La Niña have their strongest influence on global climate during the Northern Hemisphere winter. During La Niña winters, the southern tier of the United States is often drier than normal. Northern Australia, Indonesia, and the Philippines are often wetter than normal.